How to check your confidence
Confidence is a prediction about your answer. Comparing it with checked results can show where your judgement was too optimistic or too cautious on a particular set of questions.
By Zehano · Original AI-assisted explanation and worked example · Updated 16 October 2026 · Editorial approach
A worked example
If you predict 80% confidence for ten answers but only six are correct, average confidence exceeds accuracy by 20 percentage points. That does not prove you are always overconfident. Inspect the errors: perhaps one topic accounts for most of them, or the answer key needs checking. A larger, varied set gives a different perspective from one short quiz.
Try it in three steps
- Record confidence before seeing the key.
- Check each answer against a reliable source.
- Review the difference and the individual mistakes.
What to watch for
Do not change confidence retrospectively to fit the result. The value of the comparison comes from retaining the original prediction.
Apply it to your own material
Choose one topic from your current course or project. Write down the question you want to answer, make an attempt, and keep a note of how you checked it. Use the example above as a pattern; replace its subject matter and assumptions rather than copying an answer into a different task.
Open Confidence Calibration ↗Background reading
These sources explain the broader learning principles. Zehano’s examples and software are original; they are not endorsed or individually evaluated by the source authors. This guide is not a systematic evidence review.
- Learning Scientists: six strategies for effective learning
- Retrieval Practice: learning by bringing information to mind